NOTE 1: Apologies for the delay in publishing. My team and I were working vigorously at TIFF. Following the festival, I was in Montana (my new favorite state). Now I am moving companies! Busy times, but good times.
NOTE 2: This took a hot minute to compile, and the quantitative analysis was tricky.
The summer of 2024 delivered a varied box office performance, reflecting both the industry's ongoing recovery and lingering challenges from previous disruptions. A year-over-year (YoY) comparison of box office revenue from May to August reveals an 11% drop, with total earnings reaching $3.6 billion, down from $4 billion in 2023. Despite some standout successes, the overall decline underscores the hurdles theaters continue to face as they work to regain pre-pandemic momentum.
Key Factors Behind the Decline
The primary reason for this decline can be attributed to a weak start in May 2024, which significantly impacted the overall summer performance. Several highly anticipated films underperformed, notably 20th Century Studios' ‘Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes,’ which achieved only modest success. Universal’s ‘The Fall Guy’ and Warner Bros.' ‘Furiosa’ also struggled at the box office despite receiving generally favorable reviews.
For perspective, May 2024’s domestic box office earnings amounted to just $550 million, which is a stark decline compared to $1.07 billion in May 2019. This marked the worst May performance since 1998, setting a challenging tone for the rest of the summer.
June and July: Stabilizing the Market
While May posed significant challenges, June and July showed signs of stability, with only modest year-over-year (YoY) declines. These months demonstrated the typical market fluctuations, driven primarily by the strength and appeal of individual film releases, rather than ongoing industry disruptions. This resilience highlights a return to more predictable patterns as theaters adapt to shifting audience preferences.
Pixar's ‘Inside Out 2’ provided a much-needed boost in June, pushing total earnings to $965 million—just 3.8% down from June 2023. July also performed well, reaching $1.18 billion, largely thanks to the successes of ‘Despicable Me 4,’ ‘Twisters,’ and ‘Deadpool and Wolverine.’ However, July 2023 benefitted from the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon (‘Barbie’ and ‘Oppenheimer’), which created an unprecedented box office surge that was difficult to replicate in 2024.
A Strong Finish in August
August closed the summer on a high note with $890 million in total earnings, the best performance for the month since 2016. As is typical, late July releases such as ‘It Ends With Us’ (Sony) and ‘Alien: Romulus’ (20th Century Studios) carried over into August, becoming two of the summer's most significant hits, both crossing the $100 million mark. This is a notable improvement compared to recent years, where late-summer releases have struggled to generate substantial revenue.
The success of these films was largely due to targeted marketing strategies aimed at specific audiences. For instance, Sony ran an aggressive advertising campaign for ‘It Ends With Us’ during the Paris Olympics, effectively reaching female audiences who were underserved by the action blockbusters and family films dominating the market. Similarly, ‘Twisters’ found success by marketing its unique thrills and on-location shooting directly to rural moviegoers, standing out against the more typical summer fare.
Genre Diversity: A Key to Stability
Another interesting trend in 2024 was the diverse genre representation that helped maintain the box office baseline. On one end of the spectrum, ‘Alien: Romulus’ marked the Disney debut of the ‘Alien’ franchise, winning over both longtime fans and new audiences with director Fede Álvarez's dedication to practical effects and sets. Meanwhile, the indie horror film ‘Longlegs,’ distributed by Neon, became its highest-grossing film ever, fueled by an effective digital marketing campaign and word-of-mouth surrounding Nicolas Cage's chilling performance.
These types of films, though not massive blockbusters, play a critical role in sustaining theater revenue and increasing the demand for screenings. As film exhibitor expert Loria noted, “Movies like ‘It Ends With Us’ and ‘Twisters’ are crucial in keeping the industry from long slumps. They help theaters keep staff on hand by maintaining steady demand.”
The Road to Normalcy
The consistency seen in 2024 is something the industry has sorely missed since theaters reopened in 2021. The pandemic brought a wave of challenges, from COVID-19 outbreaks in 2021 to production backlogs in 2022 and strike delays affecting 2023 and early 2024. Now, with a more predictable release schedule and stable production pipelines, the film industry is beginning to see a return to normalcy.
AMC Theatres has been particularly optimistic, highlighting that despite a weak second quarter with an 84% drop in adjusted EBITDA and a $32 million loss, the company posted an all-time best EBITDA by July. The company attributed this recovery to major releases like ‘Inside Out 2,’ ‘Deadpool 3,’ and ‘Despicable Me 4.’ The early 2024’s challenges were a result of the production delays caused by the strikes of 2023. However, by May, the strike-related disruptions had largely dissipated, allowing the box office to begin a steady upward climb.
Looking Ahead: The Future of Theatrical Releases
While the summer of 2024 provided some optimism, the full picture of the box office recovery will not be clear until the end of the year. A loaded slate of September releases, including ‘Transformers One,’ ‘Beetlejuice 2,’ and ‘The Wild Robot,’ is expected to build further momentum.
The industry’s recovery is largely due to Disney's dominance, which accounted for 42% of the summer box office. After a difficult 2023, where films like ‘The Marvels’ and ‘Wish’ underperformed, Disney made a strong comeback with ‘Deadpool 3’ and ‘Alien: Romulus,’ both products of its acquisition of 20th Century Fox. As Loria succinctly put it, “There’s no getting back to pre-pandemic business without Disney.”
Summer 2024 offered a mixed but promising outlook for the theatrical industry. While the season started slow, the recovery in June, July, and August points to a return to stability as the industry continues to adjust to post-pandemic realities. The diversity in successful film genres and strategic marketing campaigns helped maintain a steady baseline, and with major releases still on the horizon, 2024 could mark a significant step forward in the industry's ongoing recovery.
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