NOTE: Apologies for the delay in posts. I have been so busy with the Cannes Market and my work. Consistency in posting articles should be back to normal come June 1st.
The summer box office season officially kicked off this past Memorial Day weekend, and so far, it’s as lackluster as a Fourth of July without fireworks.
Ambler’s Cut: Box Office Breakdown
Furiosa is falling short of expectations, coming in 13% below predictions with a domestic opening weekend of $26.3 million over three days.
In a close second place is Sony Pictures Entertainment’s Garfield, which earned approximately $24 million during the same period.
The third wide release, Sight, is struggling significantly. Despite being behind four other films already in their subsequent weekends, Sight from Angel Studios managed only $2.7 million in box office revenue, falling nearly 50% below projections.
Where the Danger Lies
Both Furiosa and Garfield received widespread acclaim. Furiosa boasts a 90% score from both critics and audiences on Rotten Tomatoes and a B+ on CinemaScore. Viewers praised it as an outstanding achievement from director George Miller, known for 2015’s Fury Road and the original 1979 Mad Max.
Additionally, both films benefited from robust marketing campaigns. Garfield attracted significant attention through partnerships with pet insurance companies in the U.S., and Sony executed a comprehensive three-phase campaign over ten months with a $65 million marketing budget. Sony aimed to surpass the box office revenue of the previous Garfield film, which grossed $143 million globally.
Despite these efforts, the results are likely disappointing for Sony’s CEO, Tom Rothman.
It appears that this summer will be a particularly dry one at the box office in Canada and the U.S. To put it in perspective, the summer box office season lasts for 123 days, from the May long weekend until Labor Day. Typically, summer releases account for 40% of the annual domestic box office revenue. In 2023, the summer box office accounted for approximately 45% of the domestic total, driven by strong releases that grossed $4.03 billion in sales. Overall, the 2023 box office totaled $8.9 billion. This was the first time since the pre-COVID-19 era that the summer domestic box office surpassed $4 billion. The summer of 2023 was buoyed by hits like Barbie, which grossed $636.2 million, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, which earned $381.3 million. These were two of thirteen films that grossed over $100 million in ticket sales.
For many analysts, this summer is shaping up to be a departure from the norm. Paul Dergarabedian, a senior media analyst at Comscore, projects that the summer box office will fall short by nearly $800 million compared to last year's total, leaving it to contribute only 38% to the annual box office revenue.
However, the concerns extend beyond just the summer months. The first few months of 2024 have been unusually sluggish, resembling a desert devoid of rainfall. From January to April, ticket sales amounted to about $2 billion, marking a 20% decrease compared to the same period last year.
Delving deeper into historical summer box office figures, this year stands out as an anomaly. With the exception of 2017, the domestic box office has consistently exceeded $4 billion during the summer months from 2007 to 2019. In 2013, ticket sales peaked at a record $4.75 billion. Paramount's Top Gun: Maverick was the top-grossing summer film in 2022, raking in $701.3 million domestically.
So, What's Causing This Drought?
For starters, the poor performance of these films cannot be blamed on audience reviews or marketing efforts.
The pandemic and ongoing labor strikes are akin to a modern-day application of the World War II tactic of "scorched earth." Disney/Marvel Studios has delayed its plans for the Marvel Cinematic Universe until 2025, except for Deadpool 3. Paramount Studios has similarly postponed Mission Impossible 8, now slated for Memorial Day 2025.
With only 32 wide releases scheduled for this summer, the box office is starved for content. Marvel, once a staple of the summer blockbuster season, has historically dominated with films grossing over $100 million in their opening weekends since 2009. However, the R-rated Deadpool & Wolverine presents a riskier proposition.
On a side note, Ambler’s Cut previously projected Deadpool 3 to gross roughly $350 million at the domestic box office within the first four weeks, making it the highest-grossing summer film according to their estimates.
Looking Ahead To The Summer Months
As previously mentioned, May concludes without a single film breaching the $100 million mark in its opening weekend. In June, Sony's Bad Boys: Ride or Die and Pixar's Inside Out 2 are scheduled for release. July may see a revenue boost with Twisters and Illumination's Despicable Me 4, with tracking indicating strong performance. Despicable Me 4 is poised to be direct competition for Deadpool 3.
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