In order to properly comprehend the thought process and motif behind Ambler’s Cut and its forecasts, one thing must be made absolutely clear: this is a website that follows no lead.
Ambler’s Cut does not believe in rhythm, routine, or normality. It is built on the hidden logic of illogical behavior.
Now is a good time to announce last week’s box office numbers:
The average reader has probably either logged out by now or scoffed with enough force to rupture their thyrohyoid (throat) muscle.
However, there is much to explain. At the core of it, Hollywood is going through a paradigm shift.
The box office report for the weekend of November 12, 2023, was stunning.
Hollywood witnessed the aftermath last week as "The Marvels," which cost a hefty $200 million, amassed an opening weekend total of $46 million. Ambler's Cut's projections were only off by $6 million.
On the contrary, A24's "Priscilla" was projected to gross $3.5 million but exceeded expectations, achieving a final gross of $4.8 million. This represented a 27% increase from the previous weekend, displaying healthy growth for an ‘indie film.’
With that being said, Marvel Studios is beginning to see where the hands of the clock are falling to.. and they are not liking the time. Franchises and sequels are not the only parts of Hollywood undergoing change and expressing concern; everything is changing.
The Three Facets
The previous Hollywood paradigm ended in the early 2000s. This marked the dawn before the current paradigm viewers find themselves in—or, for the sake of the argument, leaving.
Hollywood has lost the movie star. Pre-2000s, Hollywood had actual stars who could muster mass audiences to see their films. Today, the ‘star’ is intellectual property (IP), specifically a superhero. To be blunt: anyone can play Spiderman. No one goes to the theater today to see a star; they go to see the IP.
Secondly, studios realized the power behind sequels, franchises, and tentpole concepts. Enter Marvel. They built something groundbreaking: the ability to provide people with a formulaic story and a high-concept with a huge payout.
In "Sleepless in Hollywood" by Lynda Obst, the argument is made that the American film industry shifted into the modern-day paradigm, guided by three essential principles for greenlighting movies by studios:
1. Pre-awareness of the character or story.
2. The need to sell overseas.
3. The potential to generate a franchise or sequel.
These three principles became solidified within the post-2000s era of Hollywood, kicking off an unstoppable wave of spinoffs, franchise blockbusters, and greed!
Thirdly, and most importantly, our methods of distribution have changed. Audiences have phased out cable TV and brought in streaming services that once relied on subscriber-based business methods. This has resulted in an overwhelming amount of content, with entire seasons of series being released at once.
The Human Direction
"If people are given one kind of thing and endlessly sold one kind of thing, of course, then people will want that one kind of thing." - Martin Scorsese.
The three facets are elements that shaped the human experience for the past two decades. Ultimately, audience members/viewers decide how Hollywood operates. You see, audience members accepted these three tenets as the new norm; thus, the new paradigm post-2000. Audiences adapted to a lack of cognitive function during a movie, ceasing to ask questions and relying on studios like Marvel to spoon-feed us answers. People consumed content based on an algorithm. If you look at what is listed under "recommended" on Netflix, these are films cookie-cut from a previous film viewers watched as kids. Case in point: 2018’s “Jumanji Welcome to the Jungle.”
Audience members were coerced into becoming lazy. They stopped going to theaters because they simply didn't have to. They were told that streaming is the smarter, lazier, easier option. Content on content on content. Or, as Bret Easton Ellis would say, 'surface on surface.' At one point, nothing had a soul to it.
Studios molded audience behavior and logic. However, much like the human experience, we snap out of things! Now, audience members are waking up from their fever dream, which was the previous era of cinema, and seeking something different.
The New Paradigm
Look at history and sprinkle some optimism.
The normalcy behind this cultural shift is evident in history. As mentioned earlier, audience members play a decisive role in shaping the future of entertainment, a fact reflected in today's box office scores. Viewers are gravitating towards films with flavor and originality, such as “Barbie,” “Oppenheimer,” “Glass Onion,” and “Talk To Me.” Simultaneously, films like “The Marvels” are faltering.
Audience members are beginning to crave thought-provoking experiences, desiring to leave films feeling excited and immersed without an immediate longing for a sequel or post-credits scene.
Moreover, distribution methods are gradually reverting to their traditional roots, a stunning cyclical trend. Free ad-supported television is on the rise, while subscription-based methods are declining. Is this the dawn of a transformation resembling a shift into neo-cable networks?
What is happening is a cultural shift. Currently, Hollywood is acknowledging an impending and drastic change. A fitting analogy would be that of a pressure cooker at its last moments: the enduring impact of COVID-19, theaters in disarray and struggling to perform at full capacity as they once did, once robust intellectual properties like Marvel losing touch, while Barbie and original films are performing exceptionally well. Distribution models are witnessing the ascent of free ad-supported television services and a TV distribution market showing signs of cyclical patterns. Audiences are moving away from subscription methods toward ad-supported ones. Could this be the advent of neo-cable networks?
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