The past weekend proved challenging to predict in terms of box office performance. This was because of something that could be a new theme in the world of cinematic releases: concert-films. Beyoncé's "Renaissance" experienced a front-loaded opening, gradually declining by the weekend's conclusion. On Friday, "Renaissance" debuted with a solid $11.6 million but experienced a 48% drop on Saturday, earning $6,024,538. The decline continued on Sunday, with the film dropping an additional 31%, earning just over $4 million.
Ambler's Cut forecasts a continued decline for “Renaissance” into the second weekend, and by the third weekend.. Well, let’s just say it's Wonka's world.
The world of concert documentaries (disclaimer: the official title per IMDbPro is "Documentary Music") is a tricky one! There are a lot of questions resting behind this facet of the industry, but the question at the forefront of everyone’s mind is whether it can be profitable at the box office.
AMC Distribution has–mostly–succeeded in this realm. This marks their second concert documentary release this year, the first being "Taylor Swift Eras Tour." That colossal film made history as the highest-grossing concert film of all time.
So, where did Beyoncé go wrong? What propelled Taylor Swift's "The Eras Tour" to such momentum?
Let's first take a look at AMC Distribution.
AMC opened the "Eras Tour" in 3,855 theaters, while Beyoncé's "Renaissance" debuted in 2,539 theaters—a tremendous difference in venue size.
This contrast was intentional; AMC carefully weighed the risk versus reward of opening Beyoncé's film in over 3,000 theaters, a strategy they also applied to Taylor Swift's film. In both instances, they made the right decision. What played a crucial role for AMC in predicting the films and determining their necessary theater load?
It comes down to the glow behind the star.
Let's rewind the clocks to 2011. That year saw the release of "Justin Bieber: Never Say Never." Justin's film had an opening weekend that amassed $29.5 million. For comparison, Beyoncé's opening weekend was 28% lower than Justin Bieber's.
In 2008, moviegoers experienced the release of "Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds," grossing $31.1 million in its opening weekend. For reference, Beyoncé's opening weekend revenue was 32% lower than Miley Cyrus'.
Not only do these numbers help put Beyoncé's decent opening weekend into perspective, but they also reveal what points of reference AMC Distributors were using. Take Disney Studios’ "Miley Cyrus and Hannah Montana," for example. AMC would have noticed its tremendous debut weekend but also understood that Miley Cyrus's character, Hannah Montana, was on the decline in popularity at the time of her film release.
Examining the Nielsen Ratings' graph attached below, it shows that Hannah Montana (the sitcom) was experiencing a decline at the time of the film's release. The sitcom was losing its appeal to audiences for various reasons. However, AMC would have then observed the film's performance and made some clear choices based on it. The film had a star who did not stand out the way she did pre-2008.
AMC could have seen this and drawn a parallel to the much older and more distant singer, Beyoncé. Beyoncé is not in the news as much as she once was. Like Miley Cyrus, she is a cultural icon, but could she bring fans to the theaters? No, not really.
However, Taylor Swift can, and with blunt force.
At the time of Taylor Swift's film debut, an article was released that explained how Taylor Swift had become so powerful that her presence in a city for a concert or attending a football game quite literally shaped the city's economy. They dubbed it 'Swiftonomics.'
AMC Distributors observed the ascending popularity of Taylor Swift and knew that a gamble of 3,500+ theaters was a wise decision. In contrast, the fading star Beyoncé had to play a safer game, hence opening it to a smaller market.
When we examine the past and compare it with the present, several considerations emerge within the realm of concert films. However, at the heart of this lies the pivotal factor—the star in question. Does Beyoncé carry her weight in today's landscape? How about Taylor Swift? The answer distinctly reveals which stars can allure the coveted theater-goers. It's a challenging realm, but AMC appears to navigate it with a clear understanding of what it's doing.
What does the future hold for concert-films? Knowing what we know about the Box Office and Hollywood, 'if one film in a genre does well, then that means it will all do well' - Hollywood Logic. Time tells all.
Great edition of this weeks Ambler's Cut! I wonder if more artist will consider "concert documentaries" in their repertoire of future earnings potential given these recent successes. Do you imagine studios, like AMC, will continue to capture this category of film or is this a larger industry trend we might see competition over? Let me know your thoughts.