Ambler’s Cut strongly believes in the influence of theater, particularly Broadway Musicals. However, akin to Brandon Hill’s stance on Video Game Adaptations, the transition of musicals from stage to silver screen can be equally tricky, with “Wonka” being no exception.
Wonka is presented as ‘an original, musical take on the classic non-musical story.’ There is significant disagreement on this point. We can track musicals in the last decade and it reveals that some have been monumental successes in both box office and home distribution, while others fail to gain any traction.
Streaming has caused many genres (particularly comedies) to exit theaters en masse, yet, oddly, musicals have consistently been given theatrical releases.
Why is a subset of film, something considered quasi-film, quasi-musical, a preferred choice for theaters and distribution companies?
Musicals are undeniably hit or miss. Examining our model’s baseline prediction for Wonka alongside comparable opening weekends of musicals, it's evident that this film genre's performance at the box office is highly volatile.
However, Ambler’s Cut would like to emphasize one crucial point: The key to success for musicals at the box office lies in the strength of their endurance.
In 2018, "Mary Poppins Returns" opened to a mediocre $23 million; however, it accumulated a groundbreaking $171 million during its theater run. A similar trend can be observed with 2017’s "The Greatest Showman," which opened to a weak $8 million but grossed over $174 million. The film experienced a record-breaking 76.3% rise in its sophomore weekend, showcasing a remarkable amount of momentum within a week. It then saw a modest 11% drop in its third weekend.
A valuable metric for assessing a film's staying power is its multiplier, calculated by dividing its total domestic box office returns by its first-weekend returns. Very few films have surpassed single digits; the highest multiplier to date is for "Titanic," which opened to $21.6 million and finished its run with a multiplier of 21.
Due to "The Greatest Showman" opening low, it achieved a multiplier of 18.8 by the end of its theatrical run!
The key to success for musicals lies not solely in focusing on the initial bang but in sending the message that the show goes on, whether it's the third weekend or the fourth. Especially considering that the holiday season brings families together, what better way to spend the week between Christmas and New Year's than to go see a family-friendly film?
The studio behind a musical must avoid tunnel vision and concentrate on the road ahead. In 2019, "Cats" opened to a terrible initial weekend and sank further as the studios seemed to give up on it. Similarly, 2015’s "Paddington" and its sequel were films with healthy opening weekends that declined rapidly in their theatrical runs. Despite a strong opening for "Paddington," the studio mistakenly thought, 'we are too strong to fail now.' Clearly, that was not the appropriate logic to hold for the musical.
"Wonka" needs to focus not solely on its opening weekend.
Ambler’s Cut predicts "Wonka" to open solidly with $36 million. However, if the sophomore weekend is handled correctly, it could rise to a solid $40-50 million. The film must look ahead; there is a lot of opportunity to grow.
Musicals go one of two ways: they open strong and fall fast or they open decently and ascend slowly.
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