“Nobody knows anything...... Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what's going to work. Every time out it's a guess and, if you're lucky, an educated one.”
William Goldman, Adventures In The Screen Trade
If William Goldman earned a nickel every time someone in Hollywood muttered those words of his, he really would be a man made out of gold.
This past Christmas weekend witnessed true carnage, with most distribution companies finding lumps of coal in their stockings. It has been a volatile year for films at the box office, and this weekend only exacerbated the challenges.
All films at the box office fell short of expectations. For starters, "Wonka" plunged a substantial 52% from its opening weekend to the second, marking a drastic change for a film that we anticipated to be on an upward trajectory for most of the holiday season.
Now, let's navigate the murky waters of "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom." There isn't much of a silver lining to this film’s debut. Examining the previews, it was evident the film was already in rough waters, earning only $4.5 million in previews. In contrast, 2019’s "Shazam" struggled with previews but went on to earn $133.8 million. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about "Aquaman 2’s" performance so far. The film has earned half of what the first "Aquaman" made in its opening weekend and less than half of "Black Adam’s" $67 million start in October of last year. Warner Bros. clearly did not expect high tides when it came to the film’s earnings; "The Lost Kingdom" was a bit of a lost hope from the start. Examining the 2023 track record for superhero films, you'll begin to understand where Ambler’s Cut is coming from.
In 2023, superhero films collectively earned $1.44 billion at the box office compared to $2.05 billion last year. The $600 million difference is a grave warning for what is to come post-2023. The last hope for "Aquaman 2" will come from its international theater performance, which will add up to $80.1 million over the four-day holiday weekend.
Universal’s "Migration" debuted with a $12.3 million weekend, falling short of the predicted little over $20 million. Once again, this weekend proved to be shocking.
Sony Pictures released "Anyone But You," which sank below predictions by $2 million. Additionally, A24’s "The Iron Claw" had a tricky start, earning a little under $5 million, while the prediction was $9.0 million.
So, what does all this mean? The year-end box office has always been challenging to predict, given the sporadic inflow and outflow of moviegoers during the holiday season, as families take time off to be with loved ones. This implies that the average American household might not prefer seeing a film on a Saturday night, opting for a Tuesday or Wednesday.
Moreover, something interesting and deserving of close study is the recent debut of "The Color Purple." It wasn't factored into the box office weekend forecasts/analysis because it debuted on Christmas Monday, but it surged to first place, earning $18,150,000 in 3,152 theaters with an average of $5,758 per theater.
Fast forward a day to December 26, Tuesday, and "The Color Purple" had fallen two spots, earning a mere $7.0 million. "Wonka" secured first place with over $8.3 million, and "Aquaman" earned $8.3 million, claiming second place. Looking ahead to Wednesday, December 27, "The Color Purple" fell to fourth place as "Migration" ascended a spot.
Ambler’s Cut speculates that group sales and previews helped front-load the film's December 25 debut. However, prematurely labeling the film as a failure would be unwarranted.
Stay tuned for more in the upcoming article on December 29 - January 1 Box Office Analysis.
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