NOTE 1: I missed last week’s deadline because work has been brutal and three deals are closing by the end of first quarter.. I also had a really fun ski weekend (personal side note, sorry)
NOTE 2: I am still chipping away on The Love Letter to Late Night Horror! However, this was a pressing story to get out to you all. It took me a bit of time accumulating the data and putting it in this.
NOTE 3: Have an amazing weekend!
Chart A1: The comparison of Migration and Aquaman: Lost Kingdom's Box Office Revenue - 9 week period
“The real problem in this business is that if you have a great film, you really get down to it, you make a great film that no one goes to see, versus a bad film that everyone has gone to see, the way you keep your job is you make that bad film that everyone went to see. You don't get points for the great film no one went to see.” - Ron Meyer, HBO
Ron Meyer's assertions once held weight, but upon examining the data behind Illumination's 'Migration' in comparison to films that previously drew audiences to theaters, the validity of his argument seems to be waning rapidly.
Change is inevitable, yet for some inexplicable reason, studios are failing to adapt to these shifts.
Before delving further, let's define the term "family-friendly." At Ambler’s Cut, a family-oriented film typically refers to an animated movie with a G rating. Warner Bros.' 'Wonka' falls short on both counts—it is not animated, and it carries a PG rating. Animation tends to captivate children and stimulate their imaginations in ways live-action films cannot. Moreover, G-rated films are appealing to parents seeking safe, non-violent, and family-oriented entertainment. Productions from Disney, Sony Pictures Animation, and Illumination typically adhere to this family-friendly framework.
Let's begin with the facts.
Chart B2: Migration's 9 week data from IMDB PRO Box Office
'Migration' has just completed its ninth week in theaters, where it amassed approximately $5 million domestically, securing fourth place in the box office rankings. This marks a 30% increase from the previous weekend. Notably, it stands as the sole family-friendly option currently available.
The film has demonstrated remarkable longevity over its nine-week theatrical run. Moreover, with a budget capped at $70 million, its domestic gross has reached an impressive $116,386,525, resulting in a substantial profit margin. 'Migration' boasts a multiplier of 9.4, indicative of its remarkable success. In fact, referencing a previous article from Ambler’s Cut when the film initially debuted at the box office, we stated:
“It has given hope to animated films at the box office, and we hope Sony Pictures Animation and other studios take note. Looking at 2024’s slate of animated features, many studios are playing it safe and sending the films right to streaming.”
Needless to say, Ambler’s Cut predicted it accurately. This film was destined for growth, primarily because it stood as the sole family-friendly option in theaters until the premiere of Universal’s 'Kung Fu Panda 4' in late March 2024. Moreover, there exists a two-month gap in family-friendly films until the releases of 'IF' and 'Garfield' in mid-May.
You might be wondering, "What's the issue?" These films are indeed successful. However, consider the broader landscape of the 2024 film slate. Studios are increasingly investing time and resources into superhero franchises that are either burning out or are destined to fizzle out before gaining momentum. By 2025, theaters will be inundated with six or more tentpole superhero films, while the number of family-friendly films may amount to only three.
It seems the heads of major studios have their heads in the clouds, as this creative direction appears to be faltering. Take, for instance, Sony’s 'Madame Web,' which was intended to kickstart a new franchise. The film's debut was lackluster, grossing $15.3 million domestically across 4,013 theaters, averaging roughly $3,821 per theater, despite having a $100 million budget.
Pause for a moment and revisit the beginning of this article, particularly Chart A1. The chart provides a comparison between WB’s 'Aquaman: Lost Kingdom' and 'Migration.' Both films debuted on the same weekend. However, WB's aquatic adventure failed to make a splash. Its opening weekend performance was lackluster, earning a mere $38 million at the box office. The visual representation of its decline is striking, showing no signs of growth over the nine-week period—only a continuous downward trend.
Now, shifting the focus to 'Migration,' it opened with $17 million and saw an increase to $22 million in its second weekend. Remarkably, by week four, the tables had turned. 'Migration' began to gain significant momentum at the box office, reaching its peak in week five before gradually leveling off.
The question begs: Why do studios continue to prioritize the superhero genre while neglecting the evidently healthy revenue stream offered by family-friendly films?
Ron Meyer’s theory of generating attention and revenue through bad movies appears to be ineffective in this context. Instead, studios can achieve success by producing quality films, as demonstrated by 'Tom and Jerry,' which was made for half the cost and yielded triple the profit. Released in February 2021 amidst a pandemic, 'Tom and Jerry' grossed $15 million during its opening weekend and went on to earn $132 million globally.
Similarly, 'Super Mario Bros.' in 2023 had a budget of $100 million and garnered a staggering $1.4 billion globally. The evidence clearly supports this approach.
Hollywood must heed the writing on the wall and make a concerted effort to shift creative direction towards family-friendly films that cater to the masses. The emerging wave of 'New Hollywood,' characterized by assistants ascending to executive positions and artists rising to prominence, must grasp the lesson at hand: it's time to usher in new waves and bid farewell to outdated practices
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