The Marvels will be anything but marvelious.
With the Halloween season coming to a swift end, theatergoers should be engrossed in November's—normally small—catalog. This is a moment when films do not have to fit any specific time. It is not too late for some Halloween-esque films, but not too early for the holidays. Opportunity is endless! By the looks of this weekend, Hollywood is missing its mark.
What do we have here? Marvel's last stand? Variety's recent story has made Marvel's Kevin Feige think to himself, Is it time to give up the ghost? It was an honest and brutal look into the turmoil facing the once-vicious dog in the box office kennel. Today, it seems as though Marvel is less bark, more whimper.
With the odds stacked against them, "The Marvels" is going to have one tough time. As of November 8, 2023, the 2023 SAG Strike has finally come to a close. That means the cast and crew have a lot of work to do. They have the next 24 hours to promote the film. Obviously, their actions are close to futile.
The issue at hand is not about promotion (or lack of). The issue is that the once-target audience has become sick with 'Marvel fatigue.' Too much cross-platform content has been overwhelming. It is the MCU's 33rd installment. When asked, "What must I watch to follow along correctly?" The response is: Disney+'s WandaVision, Ms. Marvel, and Secret Invasion. Those are all in their first season. That is roughly six episodes per season, one season per show, and over 40 minutes of runtime per episode. That is 720 minutes of television just to be caught up for a 1-hour and 40-minute film.
Too much content is overwhelming. It is time to tread in new waters, Marvel.
Thus, "The Marvels" is poised for a soft $40 million opening weekend.
NOTE: Only two Marvel films opened below $60 million—2015's "Ant-Man" and 2008's "Incredible Hulk."
Trailing behind is "Taylor Swift Era's Tour," expected to wrack up north of $10 million in revenue. The film exhibits staying power and longevity. The accompanying line chart reveals a healthy plateau, and with November's ambiguous time frame, there's no hindrance in sight.
Blumhouse/Universal’s "Five Nights at Freddys" will see another steep dropoff. Its theatrical run has essentially concluded, coinciding with the end of Halloween, and easy access on Peacock for interested viewers.
It is a noticeable trend with day-and-date releases. It had strong intellectual property (IP) attached to it, which caused a big spark at the box office ($80.1 million O.W.). Then, it felt a massive plummet. Specifically, the film fell 76.2% in the second weekend. However, it became the most-watched title on Peacock during its opening weekend, illustrating the viability of day-and-date or box office release films. The alternative scenario of an exclusive streaming release raises concerns.
“Five Nights at Freddys” is projected to earn $9 million, dropping a further 53%.
“Killers of the Flower Moon” will earn a solid $4.5 million this weekend. That is a 35% drop from the previous weekend. That is good news for Apple and their production arm. There is a lot of contentment surrounding the unhealthy box office performance with this film. There will come a time where this film will be studied at Emerson College’s film school. Could you say the same about “Five Nights at Freddys”?
Two new releases are scheduled for this weekend. Both “The Holdovers” and “Journey to Bethlehem” will have decent openings.However, the lack of significant publicity for both films may hinder them from surpassing the $5 million mark this weekend. “The Holdovers” is a Miramax film with ‘cozy vibes’ written all over it. It is set in 1970s Boston, Mass., during the holiday season. This will be a film that will have tremendous growth. With a decent opening, it will continue to thrive into December.
Journey to Bethlehem will be one for the streaming services to acquire (if it not already has been).
Both films will make roughly $4 million this weekend.
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