“The smartest way to find the problem is to take it all apart” - Robert Evans (Head of Paramount Pictures 1967)
And Down Goes Disney.
There is obviously some turmoil in Hollywood this week after the events of the previous weekend. The issue can only be seen if we properly break down the days leading up to the weekend in question.
It all began with the presales and previews.
On Tuesday, November 21, 2023, “Napoleon” secured a solid $3.0 million in presales, with "Wish" closely trailing at $2.3 million.
Wednesday, November 22, witnessed “Wish” triumphantly claiming the top spot at the box office with slightly over $8 million and an extensive 3,900 theaters. This roughly equated to $2,081 per theater. Following closely in second place, “Napoleon” brought in $7.7 million across 3,500 theaters, resulting in approximately $2,210 per theater.
In third place, “The Hunger Games” closely followed with $7.2 million, screening in 3,776 theaters.
On November 23, Thanksgiving Day, “The Hunger Games” maintained its dominance at the top of the charts, earning nearly $6 million while being displayed in the same number of theaters as previously mentioned. In second place, “Napoleon” secured a solid $4.3 million, maintaining its theater count. In a surprising turn, Disney’s “Wish” plummeted by an astonishing 53%, earning $3.8 million, with the same number of theaters. This roughly came to $973 per theater.
In the days following, this hierarchy remained unchanged.
Consider it as a wolf pack, where one member just cannot keep up. Disney’s “Wish” personified that struggling member, consistently trailing far behind Sony’s “Napoleon” throughout the entire weekend. Whether the pack experienced an increase in moviegoers one day, "Wish" only felt the slightest bump. Conversely, if the pack dwindled on the next night, Disney’s film experienced a substantial decline. Examine the Daily Domestic Chart for Saturday, November 25, 2023. “The Hunger Games” saw a 2% decrease compared to the preceding day, “Napoleon” fell by 10%, and “Wish" dropped by 12%.
NOTE: If the percentages seem small, look closer, and recognize that this comparison involves days, not weeks as per usual.
So what does this tell us?
There is a serious underlying issue with Disney’s execution.
In fact, Bob Iger, who is at the helm of Disney Studios, has stated that "quantity over quality is to blame."
A historical analysis reveals a pattern of this behavior in recent years. For instance, the Thanksgiving weekend of 2022 saw the release of Disney’s “Strange World,” which only managed to accrue a meager $14.6 million over the five-day period.
Another significant factor at play emerged this past weekend, involving Marvel Studios, a subsidiary under Walt Disney Studios. Despite “The Marvels” surpassing Charlie’s Cut’s projections, the film still struggles with its overall gross. The intent here is not to criticize Marvel but to reiterate concerns about Disney's repeated misfires.
The studio must commit to its singular products, emphasizing quality over quantity, Mr. Iger.
Contrastingly, what contributed to “The “Hunger Games'” success, and what sustained “Napoleon” to such a high degree?
“The Hunger Games” not only exceeded expectations in its sophomore run but owed much of its success to the strategic efforts of Lionsgate.
In fact, when the prequel was first announced, Lionsgate made it clear that it was a standalone prequel, and no plans or thoughts had been put into the future of the series.
This deliberate approach aligns seamlessly with Jason Blum’s (Blumhouse Productions) theory on the importance of crafting a conclusive ending. Jason dubbed it: “getting the ending right.”
In his view, a film should never be conceived with the singular aim of spawning sequels, franchises, or adhering to tentpole business models. Instead, the emphasis should be on getting the ending just right—the grand finale, a proverbial nail in the coffin. Operating under this model prevents premature decisions. It advocates entering the venture with all the eggs in the basket, reaching for the stars, and acknowledging that even if the film misses, it is by no means game over—because of the prudence exercised in the process!
Jason sat down with Walker and Dunlop recently where he expanded on his theory:
“Directors are very used to, and writers are very used to talking to studios who are always thinking about what the sequel is going to be. And I am trying to erase that from the creative person's mind because it is so hard to make an original movie that connects with an audience, to make an original movie that connects with an audience, and also is a setup for a second movie.”
Another film demanding attention is Focus Features' "The Holdovers."
Charlie’s Cut forecasted the film to have legs, and that is exactly what has been on display for the past four weeks. Following a gradual expansion in theaters since its limited release, “The Holdovers” notched a commendable 4% increase in revenue this past weekend. The film stands as a testament to America and Canada's profound love for original holiday narratives. It's evident that the film will maintain some strong momentum leading up to Christmas Day.
I like your point on a good ending. I think modern day viewers can more easily discern what is and isn't a nostalgic 'cash-grab' from the studios and so that's why Lionsgate's statement is important.